sparr | Seeking feedback on settlement strategy (Reply)

The lawsuit preventing the sale of my home is going to mediation in June and trial in September. I'm trying to think through what sort of settlement offers I'd be willing to accept. Here's my take on the possible trial outcomes:

Likelihood	Outcome	Net Result
1%	Lose the property and the restoration cost	-$2M+ debt
2%	Forced sale minus restoration cost and other damages	-$1M debt
2%	Forced sale minus restoration cost	+$100k cash, -$700k debt
25%	Forced sale	+$800k cash/mortgage
40%	Case is a wash and I sell to new buyers	+$1-2M cash
10%	I win damages and sell to new buyers	+$1-2M cash, +?? damages
20%	Buyer appeals; timeline extends 1–2 years	One of the above, later

Those net results are based on losing or getting rid of the property and taking into account the ~$700k I owe mostly to friends right now, the increases in property value in the last two years, and commission on the sales. There are smaller variables (e.g. foreclosure risk, market fluctuations, interest, court costs), but enumerating every possible combination would probably be counterproductive.

My expected value based on the above is ~$1.1M, with an expected time to exit of ~10 months. He previously offered ~$550k, which would have left me $150k in debt so I immediately declined.

Based purely on those numbers, if he offered me better than my EV in terms of cash and time, I should probably accept it. Or I should offer to dismiss all claims on both sides.

But this isn't just about the hard immediate numbers for me. There are factors that would increase my number. I care about the value of the years of my life he has consumed/wasted. I care about dissuading people from trying to rip me off in the future, and this guy from trying to rip off other people. I care about justice and legal precedent. I care about fulfilling my obligations. I care about the psychological impact this decision will have on me. There are factors that could decrease my number. I might be wrong about the value of the property, or the likelihood of the bad outcomes, particularly my performance in court.

What else should I be considering? Where can I get help firming up these predictions? I welcome feedback on any part of this, in public or private.